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As yields on risk-free Treasuries fell, private pension plans lowered their investment return assumptions but public plans did not. Instead, public pensions invested in risky assets.  REUTERS/Graphics If they protect their portfolios by moving assets into safer, lower-return investments, he said, they will have to drastically increase the cost for local governments. They are reluctant to do that. The California Public Employees' Retirement กระเป๋าสตางค์ขายส่งสําเพ็ง System, the largest U.S. public pension fund, anticipates annual returns of 6.2 percent over the next decade. However, CalPERS still expects its long-term return to align more closely with a discount rate that it plans to reduce to 7 percent by 2020, because it anticipates returns will jump to 7.83 percent in the decades to follow. Such a forecast in the short term could spell declining fund conditions, a rise in unfunded liabilities and increased costs for government employers and workers. CalPERS is not alone. The Ohio Public Employees Retirement System expects an average 6.76 percent return over the next five to seven years, short of its 7.5 percent discount rate. But the fund anticipates returns will climb to 7.85 percent over a 30-year period. Los Angeles Fire and Police Pensions expects compound returns of 6.33 percent over the next decade, considerably below its 7.5 percent discount rate. The fund believes the compound return will rise over the long-term as interest rates move back up, said General Manager Ray Ciranna.

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